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Do things get skewed if you survive?
[if you click that link and buy the book, I
earn a shiny dime!]
He’s the creator and writer and artist for
Dilbert. That cartoon about the hellish
corporate world that I know all of you are trying to avoid.
I’m halfway through the book and I believe
it’s awesome so far so I put it in my Amazon Store for you.
In the book, there is a section on
psychology which lists out all the biases that we humans sometimes suffer from.
One of them is Survivorship bias.
It stuck out to me because last week on
September 2nd, Roy H. William’s Monday Morning Memo (a podcast I listen to) was
all about Survivorship bias.
What is this phenomenon?
Roy tells us:
It’s derived from WWII when an analysis was
done of all the fighter planes returning from the Battle of Britain.
The analysis looked at where the most
bullet holes were found to try and improve the planes.
A report detailed the need to add armor and
extra steel to the indicated zones.
Then somebody put their Idea™ jeans on and
realized-
‘These are the planes that survived to
fly back to England, we need to add protection in the other spots
because the planes that got hit there didn’t make it back.’
Smart.
So how can this affect us in buying a
business?
When you hear about amazing successes in
business and about how people did amazingly awesome deals you are likely
hearing a true story.
But you’re hearing from a survivor.
The survivor doesn’t necessarily understand
all the variables that go into success.
Timing and luck are always part of these things.
The survivor looks at his journey and
assumes that his attitude and work ethic are what led him to succeed.
So, he tells you, ‘You just have to be
willing to work harder than the other guy and make more calls. If you are committed and visualize the
outcomes you want then the only way you can fail is if you’re deficient somehow
deep down inside.’
[No particular wantrapreneur guru quoted
there, I made that up]
You’re not hearing from all the other
people who tried to make similar things happen and who failed.
Sometimes miserably.
And here’s the point.
Many of these wantrapreneur gurus advertise
to the ‘get rich quick’ crowd and convince them that business acquisition is a
path to quick riches.
Then they sell them an expensive program.
When the student doesn’t achieve the same
level of success as the teacher, it’s obviously because they didn’t try hard
enough.
If you ask around long enough, you can find
someone you’re connected to who went out to the Hilton Hotel near the Airport
back in 1996 for a two-day seminar in how to get rich flipping bank repo
houses.
It’s the same type of stuff.
In my experience working with business
owners, entrepreneurs and investors, I’ve seen a lot of bad ideas.
I’ve witnessed people failing and I’ve seen
people lose lots of money and time.
That’s why I teach what I do. I’m trying to get people to learn from the
mistakes of others.
Sometimes, people do my Business Buyer
Advantage online course and then write me to thank me.
They say that they learned so much in the
course that they’ve come to realize that buying a business is not for them.
To me, that’s a survivor too.
Business ownership can deliver time
freedom, flexibility, lifestyle choices and, yes, even greater wealth too.
You need to be cautious.
Remember- Warren Buffet will tell you that
to be wealthy, you have to avoid losses.
This is why I don’t advertise to the ‘get
rich quick’ crowd. I promote myself to
people who’ve already realized that they want to buy a business.
I teach them how.
Cheers
Dave