Last week, I got back from a trip to Europe. It was part vacation, part business and full of fascinating conversations.
As some of you know, many entrepreneurs in their 40s (myself included) are in “round two” of life: new relationships, new perspectives, and, often, new ventures. On this trip, I noticed something interesting: many of the other guests were also business owners or professionals.
I found myself inside conversations about our own businesses with people ranging in age from mid-30s to late-60s, including some very seasoned entrepreneurs. https://youtu.be/2gdoI_KGSOU
One evening, a group of us started talking about the future big shifts that could reshape the economy and everyday life. Some people had already made major business moves based on these predictions.
Here’s a condensed version of the list.
The Decline of Cities as We Know Them
Cities have always thrived because people needed to be physically close to do business. But that’s changing.
Several entrepreneurs on the trip had already sold off expensive commercial properties, believing their long-term value will fall maybe in 5–10 years, almost certainly in 20.
Why?
Telecommuting is becoming more mainstream.
The original reason to “live near the action” is fading.
Rural and smaller-town living offers a better lifestyle and lower costs.
If fewer people need to be in cities for work, demand for urban real estate could fall — and when demand drops, prices can drop fast.
2️⃣ Commercial Real Estate’s Ripple Effect
If offices and retail space are worth less, city governments will feel it. Many rely heavily on commercial property taxes. Lower values mean:
Higher residential taxes or
Cuts to services
This could shift the balance of where people want to live and do business.
3️⃣ Self-Driving Cars & the Shrinking Auto Industry
Autonomous vehicles could radically reduce the number of cars we need.
Imagine:
Your car drops you at work
Drives Grandpa to the bowling alley
Pick up your uncle for the dog park
Returns to get Grandpa later
If families can share fewer cars, demand for vehicles plummets and so does demand for everything tied to them (sales, repairs, fuel, parts).
One entrepreneur pointed out:
Location won’t matter for repair shops once cars can drive themselves.
Large, low-cost, centralized facilities could replace today’s high-traffic “quick lube” spots.
4️⃣ Why Long-Term Business Financing Gets Riskier
If you’re buying a business especially with a 10-year loan you can’t assume the world will look the same in a decade.
We already know recessions happen roughly every 10 years. Add in technological shifts, real estate changes, and evolving industries, and the long-term risk increases.
Shorter payback periods give you more flexibility and less exposure to unpredictable change.
Takeaway for Buyers & Owners
If you’re thinking about:
Buying a business
Purchasing a building
Taking on long-term debt
…be sure to factor in big-picture trends. These shifts may not happen overnight, but over the next 5–20 years, they could dramatically reshape the business landscape.
Smart entrepreneurs look ahead and act before the change is obvious to everyone.
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– David C. Barnett
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